Causal Arguments and Causal Fallacies
A causal argument infers that X causes Y from patterns of when Y does and does not occur.
Why need formal principles?
Causal claims drive decisions, but they are easy to fake. Two principles separate plausible causal reasoning from confused correlation talk.
Principle of Agreement
If X is a common factor in multiple occurrences of Y, then X is a cause of Y.
Principle of Difference
If X is a difference between situations where Y occurs and situations where Y does not, then X is a cause of Y.
These are formalized as Mill’s Methods.