Expert
What makes someone an expert?
- We often say that you need 10,000 hours to become an expert in something.
I want to be an expert in ⚙ Engineering-Science MOC.
Thoughts on Experts
From The Psychology of Money, there was this really interesting idea about how experts (analysts) are worse guessers for future stock performance. And it’s because of the 80-20 Rule, this is why the S&P 500 goes up year over year, because there is this 20% of stocks that carry 80% of the stock.
- If you randomly guess the stocks, you actually perform better on average than investing in a Mutual Fund
Note on bird idea, this is why these forecasting models are so terrible, small fluctuations drastically change the outcome.
There is also this idea that experts become worse over time, because they practice their skill less and less. This is especially apparent with doctors, I remember that young doctors do better at identifying certain illnesses (I think X-ray scans, or detecting cancers) because it is much more fresh in their minds. Older doctors forget.
Another idea is Curse of Knowledge.
Becoming Technical
Having this conversation with Ruby have cast doubts about the benefits of becoming technical. But I think visit Generalist vs. Specialist for discussion on this dilemma.