Plausibility Test
The plausibility test is a quick filter for whether a claim is even worth investigating in detail.
Isn't this just closed-mindedness?
Implausible-but-true claims do exist (germ theory once seemed absurd), so failing the test isn’t proof the claim is false. But it raises the evidentiary bar: extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence.
Before getting into the technical merits of an argument, ask: is the conclusion plausible at all given background knowledge?
How to apply:
- Compare the claim against well-established background beliefs
- Ask what would have to be true for the claim to be correct, and how surprising that would be
- Estimate prior Credence before looking at the offered evidence
- If the claim is wildly implausible, demand correspondingly strong support before updating
Pairs with the goalpost test
Goalpost Test checks the interlocutor (will they accept defeat?). The plausibility test checks the claim (does it deserve serious engagement?). Together they triage which arguments to spend time on.