Outcome Bias

The outcome bias is the tendency to judge a decision by its outcome rather than on how reasonable the decision was that got us the outcome.

Basically, we can wrongly interpret Quadrant 2 and 3.

If we make a poor decision and things still turn out okay for us, that just means we got lucky. We should not expect to have a long and successful career if all we are going to do is rely on luck. A poor decision that leads to a favourable outcome is still a poor decision.

Poker is the perfect encapsulation of this bias. You can play really well, make the best decisions and just have bad luck.